Unique property only 2 blocks from Moonlight Beach, Encinitas!

Unique property only 2 blocks from Moonlight Beach, Encinitas!

Offered at: $2,500,000

Property Type: Duplex

Located just 2 blocks from Moonlight Beach with whitewater ocean views and...
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Adorable 2BD, 2BA newer home in Encinitas.

Adorable 2BD, 2BA newer home in Encinitas.

Property Type: Mobile/manufactured

Enjoy the Encinitas lifestyle in this fabulous 2 bedroom, 2.0 bath home....
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Country charmer with unique old world charm, located in great Northview Community, Encinitas.

Country charmer with unique old world charm, located in great Northview Community, Encinitas.

Offered at: $1,099.000.00

Property Type: Residential

Delightful Country Charmer with Unique Old World Flavor, Granite Counter...
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Record Low Interest Rates Yet Data Shows Lack of Activity. Why?

I recently read an article written by Time Magazine’s Alison Rogers discussing the recent trends within the national real estate market.  Her argument is that data has shown that while interest rates are at an all-time low (since Freddie Mac began keeping track of them in 1971) buyers still haven’t jumped in.  Her short article cites the restrictions of lenders as the main cause (albeit, not the only one).

Lending has definitely become more restrictive.  Gone are the days of people making $10/hour qualifying for $500,000 houses on “stated” income (you tell the lender how much you make, rather than any kind of documentation required).  I will also agree that the pendulum has swung to the uber-conservative where people with good income, good credit, and little debt still find getting a loan exhausting.  (Tangent story: recently had a client buy a house for his son and, as a lesson of responsibility for his son, got a loan and put his son on the title.  The father could’ve bought the house cash and nearly did when the lending got so tedious and involved.)  However, I cite many other reasons for the lack of activity in the market.  I see them as follows:

  1. Uncertainty in Where the  Market is Going:  yes, if you are a first time home buyer the tax advantages of buying a house far outweigh waiting out the market, even if it declines (see one of the Blog’s from last week: “Renting vs. Buying: The Whole Story”).  Still, it’s very hard to buy something today when it may decline in 6 months.  Psychologically, everyone wants to buy in an appreciating market where you can know for sure that the value is going up.  Those who are affected most by a declining market are investors.  Flipping a house has become very difficult unless you’ve got a lot of cash on hand and the ability to renovate at cost.  Even then, you gamble a little in a relatively shaky market.
  2. Uncertainty in the Job Market: in August of 2011 the unemployment rate was at 9.1% nationally.  Remember, that’s 9.1% of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work.  What that number doesn’t take into account are people who have jobs but see the guy in the next cubicle get canned.  Leah has a great job but sees Joe in the next office get laid off.  I can assure you the last thing crossing Leah’s mind is running out and buying a house.  People need jobs to buy houses and get loans and without the peace of mind of a stable job we aren’t going to see an increase in activity.
  3. Better ROI Elsewhere: return on investment (ROI) is the name of the game these days.  Got cash and need somewhere to put it?  Before the downgrade, the stock market might have been a better, albeit riskier, decision than the real estate market.  Take an above average example, Apple Inc.  At the beginning of 2009 it was selling for around $100 per share.  As of today (October 6, 2011) Apple Inc closed at $369.80 per.  Quadruple your investment since 2009?  Probably wouldn’t have happened in real estate unless you had cash.  The difference is that real estate has been a safer, longer term investment.  People that own houses and already have the tax shelter find that for bigger ROI the stock market is the way to go.

Overall, real estate is always a good investment if you’re in it for the long haul.  If you want to buy something and flip it in the next 6 months, I’d say you better have experience doing it and trust that you can get something well below market.  Buying today and holding for 5 years or more?  I can honestly say that within that time frame the market will be in a better place.  If you have questions or are interested in discusses the market, please always feel free to call or email me.

Renting vs Buying: The Whole Story

The age old question: is it worth it to buy or should I continue renting?  Well, let’s look at a hypothetical:

Let’s say John currently rents a 2 bedroom place in San Diego for $1,500 per month.  He’s tired of paying someone else’s mortgage and wants to begin putting money into his own equity and is trying to figure out if it’s worth it.  First off, let’s look at the financial side of things.  In order to do that we need to begin with a couple of rules of thumb:

1.  First off, calculating a payment can be complex and I always recommend speaking with a lender, but an easy way to start is to think that for every percentage point of interest rate you have, your monthly payment is equal to $100 times that for every $100,000 you finance.  In other words, let’s say you’re financing $300,000 at 5%.  A basic payment (before HOA dues and property taxes) would be $1,500 per month (5% at $100,000 would be $500.  $500 times 3 is $1,500).  Note that this doesn’t include property taxes, which in San Diego County are about 1.25% of the purchase price or any HOA.  Also, without getting too technical, the monthly payment depends on the type of loan.  If you do a VA loan or an FHA loan your property taxes are built into your monthly payment in an impounds account (i.e. assuming a $300,000 purchase price with a VA loan, property taxes would be $3,750 annually at 1.25%, or an additional $312.50 per month built into the payment within an impounds account).

2.  John’s payment is heavily reliant on his down payment and financing because the qualifications are different.  If he puts 20% down and does a conventional loan a lender only needs to see his last year’s tax statement.  An FHA loan (with 3.5% down) would be the last two years and these days banks want to see an increase in income from oldest to most recent.  Again, everything we’re doing here is “rule-of-thumb” without a calculator and just to give you a basic understanding.  In order to know what you qualify for and what a payment would be, speak with a lender.

Ok, back to John.  John’s trying to figure out if it’s worth it to buy today or one year from today since the market is so wacky.  John’s biggest concern is that if he buys something today and then prices soften more, maybe he should’ve waited.  Maybe.  Think of this: if John is paying $1,500 per month, in order to save money for next year the market needs to drop by $18,000 ($1,500 rent per month times 12 months).  That may not mean much at the $400,000 and $500,000 level but if John likes his payment around $1,500 per month, he’s probably looking in the $250,000 – $300,000 house area.  An $18,000 drop would be a drop of 7.2% drop (at $250,000).

Another major benefit to home ownership is the tax break.  Owning a house and paying a mortgage gives you the opportunity to  write off all your mortgage interest and property taxes.  Consult a CPA to know exactly what you can write off.  With the money saved in taxes, a $1,700 payment really becomes at least a $1,500 payment.

Making the jump to buy a home is a big step.  It means you are making a commitment to pay on a house for (usually) the next 30 years.  It means that you are established enough to feel like this will be home for at least the next couple of years, or that you can rent it out.  It means you are willing to take on the challenges of home ownership (i.e. plumbing breaks, roof leaks, etc) without the help of a management company or a landlord to call.  But here’s the kicker, after all the tax benefits and assuming he can find something he likes in his price range, John can actually save money by buying right now as compared with waiting until next year.

There’s no question our market is in uncertain times.  But if John knows that he will be staying in the house for at least the next 5 years, market signs are very strong that purchasing right now is a smart decision.  Based on the numbers above, if John is looking in the $250,000 house range, the market would need to drop 10% in the next year for him to break even.  Any drop less than that means he’s actually making (or saving) money.

If you have questions about it, please feel free to contact me.

Buyer’s Closing Costs: What Are They and How Much?

Any time you buy or sell a house there are fees.  As a buyer,  a general rule-of-thumb is that closing costs are about 3% of the purchase price.  In other words, if you buy a $400,000 house the closing costs will be about $12,000 for the buyer.  This number is separate from your down payment and is an estimate.  There is no way to know exactly as to how much a buyer’s closing costs will be because everything is negotiable (i.e. what’s your lender’s fee? are you buying down your rate at an additional cost? when are you closing escrow within the month since all property taxes, HOA dues, etc are prorated? etc etc).  In California, the seller pays the buyer’s agent’s commissions so none of these closing costs are going to the agent.  An important thing to note, however, is that many agents use a Transaction Coordinator (a person within the agent’s office who keeps the file in order and makes sure all disclosures, reports, etc are signed correctly).  Many buyer’s agents will charge their client for this service.  I personally don’t feel it’s justified (since it’s not the buyer’s problem that the file needs to be in order) and I recommend that every buyer ask their agent to waive this fee.  I’ve seen them go for anywhere from $500 -$2,000.  It’s an important thing for the file to be in order, but it’s a business expense your agent should pick up.  Look for it hidden in an “Additional Fee Disclosure” or “Transaction Coordinator Fee Disclosure”.  Ask your agent, lender, and escrow for an estimate of costs and push hard for your agent to remove that fee.  If you have questions about closing costs or want a estimated breakdown, please contact me.